Herbivores and pathogens can modulate plant population responses to future climate conditions

Climate change is expected to alter plant populations not only through direct environmental shifts but also via changes in biotic interactions, such as with herbivores and pathogens. As plant species are also expected to differ in their responses to both climate and antagonists, plant responses to both factors are expected to be variable and species-specific. To assess whether interactive effects of climate and antagonists on plant population dynamics are common and whether the strength and direction of plant responses vary across species, we conducted a multi-year field experiment that manipulated realistic climate change and experimentally reduced insect herbivores and fungal pathogens. We measured responses of plant vital rates, such as survivorship, growth, and reproduction across six grassland species. Using Integral Projection Models (IPMs) and Life Table Response Experiments (LTREs), we quantified changes in population growth rate across experimental treatments and the contribution of each vital rate to that observed change. Two of the study species declined so drastically over the course of the experiment that demographic quantification of population growth rates was not possible. From the remaining species, Bromus erectus and Plantago lanceolata show significant interactive responses of climate and antagonist reduction on population growth rates. In contrast, Dianthus carthusianorum and Tragopogon orientalis showed limited responses to experimental treatments. Notably, our results indicate that in some species biotic interactions may amplify the effects of climate change: the presence of plant antagonists exacerbates the negative effects of the future climate treatment on plant population dynamics. Our findings highlight the complexity in predicting plant population responses to climate change and provide insights for grassland management under future environmental conditions.