The Moose of Isle Royale: An Unnatural Condition?

The now iconic moose of Isle Royale National Park arrived on the island sometime between 1910 and 1915 (Hickie, 1936; Murie, 1934). Prior to that period there is no evidence of moose in either naturalist reports or in the archaeological history of the island (Murie, 1934; Scarpino, 2011). Early naturalists-while observing the moose during their first 20 years on the island--noted both their dramatic expansion, and equally dramatic population crash in the 1930s, see Figure 1. Around 1950, and just as the moose were rebounding, wolves crossed a frozen Lake Superior and began what is now one of our most emblematic predator/prey systems (Peterson, 1995). Recently, the wolves on Isle Royale appear headed for local extinction (Mlot, 2015). Calls to repopulate the island have renewed the vigorous debate surrounding what is and what is not wild about Isle Royale (Scarpino, 2011; Cronon, 1996; Nelson & Callicott, 2008; Cronon, 2003; Peterson, 1999).\n\nO_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=138 SRC=\"FIGDIR/small/019984_fig1.gif\" ALT=\"Figure 1\">\nView larger version (12K):\norg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1fd3c26org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@77f332org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@ff6d66org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1675891_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG O_FLOATNOFigure 1.C_FLOATNO The early population dynamics of moose on Isle Royale. Estimates of moose population size were taken from early naturalist reports of Isle Royale (see map for the islands location). The points indicate the average trend and the shaded region represents the reported discrepancy. The lower bound of the shaded region represents the actual value reported in the literature and were used for model fitting.\n\nC_FIG