Limitation of External Nutrient Supply Effects by Iron-Driven Internal Phosphorus Cycling in Semi-Enclosed Coastal Waters: A Case Study of Mikawa Bay

The decline in fishery yields in Japan's enclosed coastal seas has been accompanied by a reduction in phytoplankton biomass, suggesting a widespread decrease in ecosystem productivity. Oligotrophication in Mikawa Bay has caused substantial declines in phytoplankton biomass and Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) production. To assess whether external nutrient enhancement could stimulate phytoplankton growth, a controlled demonstration experiment using treated effluent from two sewage treatment plants (WWTPs) was conducted (spanning fiscal years 2022 to 2024) based on analysis using a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model. Although effluent DIP and nitrogen concentrations were increased, model results showed that WWTP-derived nutrients represent only a minor portion of the total nutrient budget. Field observations revealed limited increases in surface water phosphorus, strong seasonal variability, and only temporary rises in chlorophyll-a and clam harvests. Monthly TP data demonstrated that seasonal DIP pulses, especially spring phosphorus bursts, dominate nutrient dynamics and overshadow external loading effects. Laboratory experiments further showed that phosphate is efficiently fixed by Fe(III) under oxidizing conditions and rapidly released during reductive dissolution of [FeOOH-HPO4]2- complexes, confirming iron as the principal regulator of internal P cycling. Because current numerical models omit iron-driven internal cycling, they cannot accurately predict bioavailable P or ecosystem responses. Overall, the study indicates that localized nutrient enhancement is insufficient to counter long-term oligotrophication, and effective management must integrate nitrogen limitation, internal Fe and P cycling, oceanic exchange, and seasonal variability in Ise and Mikawa Bays.