The effect of spatial variation for predicting aphid outbreaks

Abstract

In order to improve forecasting of aphid epidemics, it is important to know the spatial scale at which specific forecasts are reliable. To investigate the spatial scale of aphid epidemics, we have developed a spatio-temporal stochastic aphid population growth model, and fitted the model to empirical spatial time-series aphid population data using a Bayesian hierarchical fitting procedure. Furthermore, detailed spatial data of the initial phases of epidemic development was investigated in a semivariogram. Our results suggest that there is limited spatial variation in the initial occurrence probability at a spatial scale of 10 km. Consequently, the results support the hypothesis that initial aphid population sizes and epidemics may be predicted in fields within a 10 km radius. For farmers, this may imply that they can rely their decision of whether to spray against aphids on observations made by other nearby farmers or by the consultancy service.