Transient amplification enhances the persistence of tropicalising coral populations in marginal high latitude environments.

Predicting the viability of species exposed to increasing climatic stress requires an appreciation for the mechanisms underpinning the success or failure of marginal populations. Rather than traditional metrics of long-term population performance, here we illustrate that short-term (i.e. transient) demographic characteristics, including measures of resistance, recovery, and compensation, are fundamental in the poleward range expansion of hard corals, facilitating the establishment of coral populations at higher-latitudes. Through the annual census of tropical and subtropical Acropora spp. colonies in Japan, between 2017-2019, we show how the transient amplification potential of a subtropical coral population supports its enhanced growth within unstable environmental conditions. The transient dynamics of both the tropical and subtropical populations were strongly influenced by their corresponding recruitment patterns. However, we demonstrate that variation in colony survival and fragmentation patterns between the two populations determines their relative capacities for transient amplification. This latitudinal variation in the transient dynamics of Acropora spp. populations emphasizes that coral populations can possess the demographic plasticity necessary for exploiting more variable, marginal conditions.