Rapid range shifts in African Anopheles mosquitoes over the last century

Abstract

Facing a warming climate, many tropical species-including the arthropod vectors of several infectious diseases-will be displaced to higher latitudes and elevations. These shifts are frequently forecasted for the future, but rarely documented in the present day. Here, we use one of the most comprehensive datasets ever compiled by medical entomologists to track the observed range limits of African malaria mosquito vectors (Anopheles spp.) from 1898 to 2016. Using a simple regression approach, we estimate that these species ranges gained an average of 6.5 meters of elevation per year, and the southern limits of their ranges moved polewards 4.7 kilometers per year. These shifts are consistent with the local velocity of climate change, and might help explain the incursion of malaria transmission into new areas over the past few decades. Confirming that climate change underlies these shifts, and applying similar methods to other disease vectors, are important directions for future research.