C. J. Carlson

Viral genomic features predict orthopoxvirus reservoir hosts

The paper uses machine learning to predict orthopoxvirus reservoir hosts by integrating viral genomic features and host ecological data, identifying high-risk regions for zoonotic OPV emergence.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

This study reviews 204 mosquito species distribution modeling studies, finding most use MaxEnt and focus on human disease vectors in Africa and Asia.

Ecological drivers of sustained enzootic yellow fever virus transmission in Brazil, 2017-2021

The paper investigates the ecological drivers of sustained yellow fever virus (YFV) transmission in Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2017-2021, finding higher infection and intensity in rural areas and warm/rainy seasons.

Rapid range shifts in African Anopheles mosquitoes over the last century

This study tracks elevation and latitudinal range shifts of African malaria mosquitoes over the last century, finding average annual gains of 6.5 meters in elevation and 4.7 kilometers poleward in southern limits.

Viral diversity and zoonotic risk in endangered species

The paper examines the relationship between endangered species status and viral diversity, finding lower virus diversity in endangered species despite higher research effort, possibly due to sampling biases.

Sampling strategies and pre-pandemic surveillance gaps for bat coronaviruses

This study analyzes bat coronavirus sampling strategies and identifies pre-pandemic surveillance gaps that may hinder understanding of zoonotic coronavirus origins.

Exploring the mosquito-arbovirus network: a survey of vector competence experiments

This study reviews mosquito-arbovirus competence experiments, finding most potential mosquito-virus combinations are untested, limiting predictive modeling of vector-virus networks.

Urban-adapted mammal species have more known pathogens

This study finds urban-adapted mammals host more known zoonotic parasites, but much of this is due to research effort rather than urban adaptation itself.

Mammal virus diversity estimates are unstable due to accelerating discovery effort

The paper shows that estimates of viral diversity in mammals are unstable due to increasing discovery rates, making ecological inferences unreliable.

The Global Virome in One Network (VIRION): an atlas of vertebrate-virus associations

The paper creates VIRION, a comprehensive database of vertebrate-virus associations, and demonstrates its utility for studying microbiology, ecology, and evolution.

Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

This study analyzes plague risk in the western US over 70 years, finding climate change has increased rodent reservoir suitability and human spillover risk.

Data proliferation, reconciliation, and synthesis in viral ecology

The paper synthesizes mammal-virus association data from multiple sources to create a reconciled database, showing improved insights into the mammal virome and advocating for synthetic datasets in viral ecology.

Viral competence data improves rodent reservoir predictions for American orthohantaviruses

This study uses machine learning to predict rodent reservoirs of orthohantaviruses, finding that competence data improves model accuracy over infection data.

Zygomorphic flowers have fewer potential pollinator species

The paper evaluates pollinator diversity in zygomorphic versus actinomorphic flowers and finds zygomorphic flowers are visited by fewer pollinator species.

What would it take to describe the global diversity of parasites?

The paper estimates that 85-95% of helminth endoparasites of vertebrates remain undescribed and highlights the need for a global effort to catalog parasite diversity.

Optimizing predictive models to prioritize viral discovery in zoonotic reservoirs

This study compares and validates predictive models to prioritize sampling of bat hosts for betacoronaviruses, finding ecological trait-based models outperform network methods.

Climate change will drive novel cross-species viral transmission

The paper predicts climate change will drive 4,000 times more novel cross-species viral transmission by 2070, mainly through range-shifting mammals like bats and rodents.

embarcadero: Species distribution modelling with Bayesian additive regression trees in R

The paper introduces the embarcadero R package for species distribution modelling using Bayesian additive regression trees, demonstrating its application with a virtual species and disease transmission risk mapping.

The two extinctions of the Carolina parakeet

This study estimates the extinction dates of two subspecies of the Carolina parakeet using a Bayesian model, revealing a 30-year gap between their extinctions.

Spores and soil from six sides: interdisciplinarity and the environmental biology of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis)

This paper reviews the interdisciplinary study of anthrax's environmental persistence and ecology, highlighting its role in shaping herbivore communities and the challenges of understanding its transmission.

Going through the motions: incorporating movement analyses into disease research

This paper reviews how movement ecology can improve disease modeling by incorporating individual movement patterns into transmission dynamics and exposure risk analysis.

Consensus and conflict among ecological forecasts of Zika virus outbreaks in the United States

The paper compares ecological niche models and mechanistic forecasts for Zika virus transmission in the US, showing how model conflicts propagate uncertainty and proposes a consensus method to improve outbreak predictions.

Estimating The Extinction Date Of The Thylacine Accounting For Unconfirmed Sightings

This paper estimates the extinction date of the thylacine using a Bayesian framework and multiple extinction models, concluding it likely went extinct by the 1950s.

A cross-validation-based approach for delimiting reliable home range estimates

The paper introduces a cross-validation method to improve parameter selection for the T-LoCoH algorithm, leading to more objective and accurate home range estimates.