Climate change favours African malaria vector mosquitoes

Abstract

Malaria, a parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles, causes half a million deaths annually, mostly among children in Africa. Climate change is expected to significantly alter malaria transmission, but previous forecasts have placed little emphasis on the varying impacts climate change could have on different mosquito vector species. Using extensive mosquito observation datasets and species distribution modelling, we investigate the climatic preferences of six dominant African malaria vector species and how the environmental suitability for these species across sub-Saharan Africa might change due to climate and land use change. We highlight three species for which environmental suitability is consistently associated with higher malaria prevalence and that might be favoured by climate change. Our projections indicate a substantial increase in areas highly suitable for these vectors, underscoring the urgent need to adapt malaria control strategies to shifting vector distributions driven by climate change.