Changes in temperature alter susceptibility to a virus following a host shift

Abstract

Host shifts - where a pathogen jumps between different host species - are an important source of emerging infectious disease. With ongoing climate change there is an increasing need to understand the effect changes in temperature may have on emerging infectious disease. We investigated whether species susceptibilities change with temperature and ask if susceptibility is greatest at different temperatures in different species. We infected 45 species of Drosophilidae with an RNA virus and measured how viral load changes with temperature. We found the host phylogeny explained a large proportion of the variation in viral load at each temperature, with strong phylogenetic correlations between viral loads across temperature. The variance in viral load increased with temperature, whilst the mean viral load did not, such that as temperature increased the most susceptible species become more susceptible, and the least susceptible less so. We found no significant relationship between a species susceptibility across temperatures and proxies for thermal optima; critical thermal maximum and minimum or basal metabolic rate. These results suggest that whilst the rank order of species susceptibilities can remain the same with changes in temperature, the likelihood of host shifts into a given species may increase or decrease.\n\nAuthor SummaryEmerging infectious diseases are often the result of a host shift, where a pathogen jumps from one host species into another. Understanding the factors underlying host shifts is a major goal for infectious disease researchers. This effort has been further complicated by the fact that host-parasite interactions are now taking place in a period of unprecedented global climatic warming. Here, we ask how host shifts are affected by temperature by carrying out experimental infections using an RNA virus across a wide range of related species, at three different temperatures. We find that as temperature increases the most susceptible species become more susceptible, and the least susceptible less so. This has important consequences for our understanding of host shift events in a changing climate, and suggests that temperature changes may affect the likelihood of a host shift into certain species.