An ecological model of masting reproduction matches empirical dynamics

Abstract

Masting, characterized by highly variable, synchronized, and intermittent seed or fruit production, represents a common reproductive strategy among perennial plants and has profound ecological consequences. Resource provisioning and pollen limitation have long been viewed as central physiological mechanisms underlying this strategy, recent empirical evidence also highlights the role of weather cues in initiating and synchronizing reproductive effort. Drawing on mechanisms that drive periodicity in disease dynamics, this study proposes an alternative proximate mechanism for masting. We develop and analyze a stage-structured population growth model in which developmental delays create population-level cycles, and demographic stochasticity adds individual-level variation; together, yielding masting-like patterns. We compare the behaviour of this novel model with that of the widely used resource budget model and empirically observed patterns of masting in perennial plants. To quantify and compare model outputs and empirical observations, we employ three continuous metrics of masting that capture volatility, synchrony, and periodicity. Our study provides an alternative proximate mechanism for masting. Comparison of this novel mechanism and the established resource-budget model to empirical time-series reveals that both represent realistic yet distinct forms of masting reproduction. Together, these models provide a foundation for further exploration of the conditions under which this reproductive strategy can evolve. Beyond masting, our results highlight the general importance of life-history timing and demographic stochasticity in shaping population ecology.