Decoupling environmental suitability from realized recruitment through ontogenetic environmental filtering in a long-lived Mediterranean palm species

Long-lived plants facing anthropogenic disturbance often exhibit recruitment failure despite persistent reproductive adults, generating extinction debt masked by longevity. However, whether adult presence reliably reflects environmental suitability for recruitment remains unclear. Here, we examine ontogenetic niche differentiation and its consequences for recruitment in Jubaea chilensis, an endangered long-lived Mediterranean palm with an aging population. We assigned individuals within the largest known population to four ontogenetic stages and characterized their environmental niches using climatic, edaphic, topographic, and vegetation variables. We then applied spatial and multivariate analyses, including Random Forest models to evaluate environmental segregation and identify predictors of seedling establishment. Age classes occupied significantly different environmental niches, with the greatest differentiation between seedlings and reproductive adults. Saplings and adult differentiation reflected mainly topographic variables at landscape scale, whereas seedling establishment was primarily predicted by microhabitat conditions (vegetation cover heterogeneity, east-facing slope orientation, and soil texture). This pattern is consistent with niche reconfiguring throughout the life cycle, suggesting that adult occurrence and recruitment suitability respond to distinct environmental conditions. Over one-fifth of sampled individuals occupied high-suitability sites without recruitment, suggesting that ontogenetic niche shifts are associated with a spatial decoupling between adult persistence and recruitment, consistent with demographic collapse independent of habitat degradation. This failure is likely mediated by insufficient effective seed dispersal, as the sole disperser (Octodon degus) preys on most seeds before dispersal. Conservation strategies based solely on adult distribution may therefore overestimate effective habitat and underestimate extinction risk in long-lived species.