Using simulated temperature regimes to test growth and development of an invasive forest insect under climate change

Temperature and its impact on fitness are fundamental for understanding range shifts and population dynamics under climate change. Geographic climate heterogeneity, behavioural and physiological plasticity, and thermal adaptation to local climates makes predicting the responses of species to climate change complex. Using larvae from seven geographically distinct wild populations in the eastern United States of the non-native forest pest Lymantria dispar dispar (L.), we conducted a simulated reciprocal transplant experiment in environmental chambers using six custom temperature regimes representing contemporary conditions near the southern and northern extremes of the US invasion front and projections under two climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Larval growth rates increased with climate warming compared to current thermal regimes and responses differed by population. A significant population-by-treatment interaction indicated that growth rates increased more when a source population experienced the warming scenarios for their region, especially for southern populations. Our study demonstrates the utility of simulating thermal regimes under climate change in environmental chambers and emphasizes how the impacts from future increases in temperature can be heterogeneous due to geographic differences in climate-related performance among populations.