Predicting Hybrid Fitness: the Effects of Ploidy and Complex Ancestry

Hybridization between divergent populations places alleles in novel genomic contexts. This can inject adaptive variation - which is useful for breeders and conservationists - or reduce fitness, leading to reproductive isolation. Most theoretical work on hybrids involves haploid or diploid hybrids between two parental lineages, but real-world hybridization is often more complex. We introduce a simple fitness landscape model to predict hybrid fitness with arbitrary ploidy and an arbitrary number of hybridizing lineages. We test our model on published data from maize (Zea mays) and rye (Secale cereale), including hybrids between multiple inbred lines, both as diploids and synthetic tetraploids. Quantitative predictions for the effects of inbreeding, and the strength of progressive heterosis, are well supported. This suggests that the model captures the important properties of dosage and genetic interactions, and may help to unify theories of heterosis and reproductive isolation.