A series of terribly unfortunate events: How environment and infection synergized to cause the Kihansi spray toad extinction

Outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases are trained by local biotic and abiotic factors, with host declines occurring when conditions favour the pathogen. Extinction of the Tanzanian Kihansi spray toad (Nectophrynoides asperginis) in 2004 was contemporaneous with the construction of a dam, implicating habitat modification in the loss of this species. However, high burdens of a globally emerging infection, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) were synchronously observed implicating infectious disease in this toads extinction. Here, by shotgun sequencing skin DNA from archived toad mortalities and assembling chytrid mitogenomes, we prove this outbreak was caused by the BdCAPE lineage and not the panzootic lineage BdGPL that is widely associated with global amphibian extinctions. Molecular dating showed an invasion of BdCAPE across Southern Africa overlapping with the timing of the extinction event. However, post-outbreak surveillance of conspecific species inhabiting this mountainous region showed widespread infection by BdCAPE yet no signs of amphibian ill-health or species decline. Our findings show that despite efforts to mitigate the environmental impact caused by dams construction, invasion of the pathogen ultimately led to the loss of the Kihansi spray toad; a synergism between emerging infectious disease and environmental change that likely heralds wider negative impacts on biodiversity in the Anthropocene.