Unexpected variation across mitochondrial gene trees and evidence for systematic error: How much gene tree variation is biological?

The use of large genomic datasets in phylogenetics has highlighted extensive topological variation across genes. Much of this discordance is assumed to result from biological processes. However, variation among gene trees can also be a consequence of systematic error driven by poor model fit, and the relative importance of these biological versus methodological factors in explaining gene tree variation is a major unresolved question in phylogenetics. Using mitochondrial genomes to control for biological causes of gene tree variation, we estimate the extent of gene tree discordance driven by systematic error and employ posterior prediction to highlight the role of model fit. We find that the amount of discordance among mitochondrial gene trees is similar to the amount of discordance found in other studies that assume only biological causes of variation. This similarity suggests that the role of systematic error in generating gene tree variation is underappreciated and that critical evaluation of the fit between assumed models and the data used for inference is important for the resolution of unresolved phylogenetic questions.