High regional variation of spotted lanternfly suitability in New York wine-growing regions signals uneven vineyard risk

O_LIThe spread of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) is facilitated by its ecological flexibility and generalist diet breadth. Among 100 other plants, spotted lanternfly feed on grapevine, so high vineyard density could make suitable habitat even more attractive. This invasive polyphagous insect threatens New York viticulture, a >$6 billion industry, but the local risk remains uncertain. New York state may include boundary conditions defining the edges of environmentally suitable habitat. C_LIO_LIUsing 16,028 spotted lanternfly observations, a species distribution model was developed for the northeastern U.S. using climatic, geographic and human influence variables. Suitability was modeled at 1km under both current (2011-2040, RCP 7.0) and worsening near-future (2041-2070, RCP 8.5) climate scenarios. Suitability models were also developed for four common tree hosts (tree -of-heaven, black walnut, red maple and sugar maple), to evaluate if combined models that include established plant host suitability improve estimates of spotted lanternfly occurrence. Kernel Density estimates of vineyard density were used to add a maximum of 10% risk. C_LIO_LICombining the spotted lanternfly suitability with tree-of-heaven suitability improves estimates of spotted lanternfly occurrence. Human influence and humidity were important for defining suitability. Frost change frequency increased in importance under near-future climate change conditions. On Long Island, 83% vineyards are at very high risk for spotted lanternfly (>75% suitability). Across New York state, 33% of all vineyards are classified as very high risk. Under future climate change conditions, the number of vineyards at very high risk of spotted lanternfly increases by 7% in the Finger Lakes but decreases by 22% on Long Island. C_LIO_LIThis model improves estimates of spotted lanternfly potential distribution by integrating suitability of its established host tree-of-heaven. Estimating potential expansion under near-future climate conditions provides information on variables that define the environmental limits of suitability. Quantifying the local risk of vineyards to spotted lanternfly at the 1km scale creates an important tool for allocating resources to mitigate and manage this pest. C_LI Open research statementMost data are already published and publicly available, with those items properly cited in this submission (GBIF species observations, CHELSA CMIP6 environmental variables, USGS topography, NASA remote sensing). However, observations of spotted lanternfly from the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets (N=10,144) and specific vineyard locations from the New York Wine & Grape Foundation (N=6,651) are considered sensitive information and are not shared here. Researchers interested in these datasets may reach out to these organizations to request access.