Effects of climatic change on the potential distribution of Lycoriella species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of economic importance

Abstract

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g. mushrooms, strawberry, and nurseries). Current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under climate change future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in distributions of these species of Lycoriella. Stable suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted for key countries (e.g. USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.