Structure-aware deep learning predicts influenza antigenicity and guides vaccine strain recommendation

Abstract

The continuous accumulation of genetic mutations in influenza A viruses (IAVs) drives antigenic drift, necessitating precise antigenic prediction for optimal vaccine strain selection. While sequence-based methods have advanced antigenic surveillance, they neglect the three-dimensional structural context that fundamentally dictates viral antigenicity. Here, we introduce Vir3D, which leverages ESMFold-derived structural information from amino acid sequences to precisely predict viral antigenicity and guide vaccine strain selection. Across both human H3 and highly pathogenic avian H5 subtypes, Vir3D not only accurately discriminates antigenic variants and infers pairwise antigenic distances, but also mechanistically delineates key structural residues driving viral immune evasion. In a decade-long retrospective analysis, Vir3D-prioritized vaccines consistently achieve broader antigenic coverage of circulating strains than World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. Crucially, Vir3D successfully predicts that the emerging U.S. dairy cattle H5N1 virus (TX/24) remains antigenically stable relative to clade 2.3.4.4b vaccine strains, and subsequent wet-laboratory validation of hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays definitively corroborates this finding. Overall, Vir3D establishes a powerful, structure-driven framework for proactive influenza surveillance and pandemic preparedness.