Winners and Losers Among European Arthropods over the Last Half Century of Global Change

Abstract

Widespread concern over arthropod declines has raised questions about how global change is reshaping biodiversity, yet large-scale responses within the group remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 50 years (1970-2019) of European arthropod occurrence data to quantify distributional changes across more than 700 species within 11 taxonomic groups. Using occupancy-detection models that account for imperfect detection, we compare time-only and environmentally mediated trends, including changes to temperature, precipitation, and agricultural and urban land cover. We find no universal signal of decline; responses are highly heterogeneous, revealing distinct winners and losers both within and among groups. Climate variables, particularly temperature and precipitation, are the strongest predictors of change, while agricultural intensification is broadly negative and urbanisation produces group-specific effects. Trait analyses indicate that warm- and dry-affiliated species and larger-bodied arthropods generally fare better. These results show that recent European arthropod change is dominated by redistribution rather than uniform collapse, with important implications for conservation and monitoring under ongoing global change.