Pan-cancer virtual spatial transcriptomics from routine histology with Phoenix

Abstract

Spatial transcriptomics links gene expression to tissue architecture, providing a mechanistic view of cellular organization. Yet existing datasets cover few donors and miss the complexity of human disease. Experimental costs remain prohibitive, and large-scale profiling is impractically slow for population-level studies. Accurate computational methods are urgently needed. Predicting gene expression from standard histology, however, remains an open problem, as current approaches transfer poorly to unseen cohorts and diseases. Here, we present Phoenix, a (latent) flow matching generative model that infers pan-cancer spatially resolved single-cell gene expression with high accuracy. Phoenix analyzes treatment response in silico: Applied to 763 head and neck cancer patients, it identified three new spatial biomarkers that we validated across two cancers (breast cancer, n = 84; ovarian cancer, n = 157) and treatment regimens (platinum, trastuzumab). Phoenix generalizes beyond carcinomas: In a large sarcoma cohort (802 tissue microarray cores), it accurately predicted cell-type-specific signatures in held-out samples and captured chemotherapy-induced immune remodeling. Phoenix also extends across species: In a mouse model, it accurately predicted the expression of pancreatic cancer lineage markers and the mutant mKras^G12D allele in silico. In total, we evaluated Phoenix on over 10,000 patients. Our results establish virtual spatial transcriptomics as a scalable framework for studying tissue organization, therapeutic response, and disease mechanisms.