The Demographic and GDP Impacts of Slowing Biological Aging

Abstract

Biological aging imposes significant socio-economic costs, increasing health expenses, reducing productivity, stalling population growth and straining social systems, culminating in reduced economic activity. We draw insights from interviews with 102 scientists working on aging biology and develop four macroeconomic simulations: slowing brain aging, slowing reproductive aging, and an overall delay in biological aging (including the novel concept of "replacing aging"). Our model is calibrated to represent how slowing biological aging manifests in the US economy and population through the channels of mortality, fertility, and productivity rates by age. We simulate the economic and demographic impacts of near-future advancements in aging science. We find that a one-year delay in brain aging alone could add $201 billion annually to US GDP. A one-year delay in overall biological aging could boost GDP by $408 billion annually, yielding $27.1 trillion in net present value in the long run.