Single-cell imaging based prognosis prediction identifies new breast cancer survival subtypes

Quantitative models that explicitly capture single-cell resolution cell-cell interaction features to predict patient survival at population scale are currently missing. Here, we computationally extracted hundreds of features describing single-cell based cell-cell interactions and cellular phenotypes from a large, published cohort of cyto-images of breast cancer patients. We applied these features to a neural-network based Cox-nnet survival model and obtained high accuracy in predicting patient survival in test data (Concordance Index > 0.8). We identified seven survival subtypes using the top survival features, which present distinct profiles of epithelial, immune, fibroblast cells, and their interactions. We identified atypical subpopulations of TNBC patients with moderate prognosis (marked by GATA3 over-expression) and Luminal A patients with poor prognosis (marked by KRT6 and ACTA2 over-expression and CDH1 under-expression). These atypical subpopulations are validated in TCGA-BRCA and METABRIC datasets. This work provides important guidelines on bridging single-cell level information towards population-level survival prediction. STATEMENT OF TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCEOur findings from a breast cancer population cohort demonstrate the clinical utility of using the single-cell level imaging mass cytometry (IMC) data as a new type of patient prognosis prediction marker. Not only did the prognosis prediction achieve high accuracy with a Concordance index score greater than 0.8, it also enabled the discovery of seven survival subtypes that are more distinguishable than the molecular subtypes. These new subtypes present distinct profiles of epithelial, immune, fibroblast cells, and their interactions. Most importantly, this study identified and validated atypical subpopulations of TNBC patients with moderate prognosis (GATA3 over-expression) and Luminal A patients with poor prognosis (KRT6 and ACTA2 over-expression and CDH1 under-expression), using multiple large breast cancer cohorts.