Phenological and epidemiological impacts of climate change on peach production

Agricultural food security is threatened by climate change impacts, which can distress crop growth and favor the spread of infectious diseases. Here, we examined the synergism of the two potentially most disruptive causes of future yield failure in peach production: the effects of global climate change on fruit growth and on the spread of fungal diseases. Coupling a phenological and epidemiological model across the French continental territory, we provided projections of yield losses for four peach cultivars (early, mid-early, mid-late, and late) in the XXI century under different climate change scenarios. Global warming is expected to impair fruit phenology with blooming failure events in the south-western part of the country. This will be less extreme under the more moderate emission scenario, even though sporadic blooming failures will still occur. In contrast, future warmer and drier conditions will decrease brown rot-induced yield loss in the historical locations devoted to peach cultivation. To adapt to these changes, the benefits of shifting peach production sites to new suitable areas are evaluated. Thanks to this strategy, the peach national yield could still be fulfilled even under the most extreme climate change scenario. Comprehensive mathematical frameworks, that concomitantly consider the climatic effects on the plant hosts and on their pathogens, are required to provide reliable future predictions of crop yields and to inform control and adaptation strategies to guarantee food security under global warming.