Effect sizes of somatic mutations in cancer

Abstract

A major goal of cancer biology is determination of the relative importance of the genomic alterations that confer selective advantage to cancer cells. Tumor sequence surveys have frequently ranked the importance of substitutions to cancer growth by P value or a false-discovery conversion thereof. However, P values are thresholds for belief, not metrics of effect. Their frequent misuse as metrics of effect has often been vociferously decried. Here, we estimate the effect sizes of all recurrent single nucleotide variants in 23 cancer types, quantifying relative importance within and between driver genes. Some of the variants with the highest effect size, such as EGFR L858R in lung adenocarcinoma and BRAF V600E in primary skin cutaneous melanoma, have yielded remarkable therapeutic responses. Quantification of cancer effect sizes has immediate importance to the prioritization of clinical decision-making by tumor boards, selection and design of clinical trials, pharmacological targeting, and basic research prioritization.