Life-cycle trajectory inference links temperature-gated progenitors to reproductive fate

Temperature shapes reproductive strategies across animals, yet how individuals switch between sexual and asexual reproduction remains unknown. We establish the planarian Phagocata morgani as a model for temperature-dependent reproductive plasticity and adapt multiplexed single-cell transcriptomics to profile >1 million nuclei from >300 animals across body sizes and temperatures. Leveraging individual variation in cell composition, we reconstruct an organism-wide trajectory that bifurcates toward alternative reproductive fates. Temperature extremes constrain worms to one fate, whereas intermediate conditions permit probabilistic commitment to either. At the bifurcation, temperature gates a stem cell pool: warmth suppresses differentiation and promotes progenitor accumulation, whereas cold transcriptionally activates this pool for de novo sexual organogenesis. These findings reveal how environmental inputs act on stem cells to couple body size, temperature, and reproductive fate.