Elevated temperatures drive the evolution of armor loss in the threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus

While there is evidence of genetic and phenotypic responses to climate change, few studies have demonstrated change in functional traits with a known genetic basis. Here we present evidence for an evolutionary adaptive response to elevated temperatures in freshwater populations of the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Using a unique set of historical data and museum specimens, in combination with contemporary samples, we fitted a Bayesian spatial model to identify a population-level decline in the number of lateral bony plates, comprising anti-predator armor, in multiple populations of sticklebacks over the last 90 years in Poland. Armor loss was predicted by elevated temperatures and is proposed to be a correlated response to selection for reduced body size. This study demonstrates a change in a functional trait of known genetic basis in response to elevated temperature, and illustrates the utility of the threespine stickleback as a model for measuring the evolutionary and ecological impacts of environmental change across the northern hemisphere.