Forecasting high pathogenicity avian influenza with a stochastic mechanistic model: performance and lessons for Australia
Meryl Theng, Simin Lee, Michelle Wille, Thao P. Le, Andrew C. Breed, Carlos Donoghue, Christopher M. Baker, Simon Matthew Firestone
The paper describes a spatiotemporal mechanistic model for forecasting HPAI H5N1 and evaluates its performance in simulating outbreak dynamics and response readiness in Australia.
bioRxiv · Aug 25, 2026 · PreprintBioinformatics