Simon Matthew Firestone

A real-time forecasting framework for emerging infectious diseases affecting animal populations

This paper introduces a real-time forecasting framework for livestock disease outbreaks, showing improved accuracy after the outbreak peak and consistent spatial forecast skill.

Forecasting high pathogenicity avian influenza with a stochastic mechanistic model: performance and lessons for Australia

The paper describes a spatiotemporal mechanistic model for forecasting HPAI H5N1 and evaluates its performance in simulating outbreak dynamics and response readiness in Australia.

Genomic epidemiology of the 2017-2023 outbreak of Mycoplasma bovis sequence type ST21 in New Zealand

This paper uses genomic and epidemiological data to analyze the dynamics of a Mycoplasma bovis outbreak in New Zealand from 2017 to 2023, showing the impact of control measures and the persistence of infection.

The effect of climate change on the spread of predicted bluetongue in Australian livestock

This study assesses how climate change affects the spread of bluetongue in Australian livestock using climate models and a disease spread model, finding that restricting animal movement is critical for disease control.