Andrew C. Breed

This paper introduces a real-time forecasting framework for livestock disease outbreaks, showing improved accuracy after the outbreak peak and consistent spatial forecast skill.

The paper describes a spatiotemporal mechanistic model for forecasting HPAI H5N1 and evaluates its performance in simulating outbreak dynamics and response readiness in Australia.

The paper investigates the ecology of low pathogenicity H7 avian influenza virus in wild birds in southeast Australia before the emergence of high pathogenicity H7 in poultry, finding weak evidence of prior changes in prevalence and diversity but strong support for a rainfall pattern association with outbreak probability.

The paper compares two avian influenza virus incursions in Australia, showing contrasting evolutionary dynamics between H4 and H10 viruses.

A novel Hendra virus variant was identified in Australian horses, showing 83% nucleotide identity to the prototype strain and suggesting potential effectiveness of existing antibodies and vaccines.