Spatial and Temporal Origin of The Third SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak in Taiwan

Abstract

Since the first report of SARS-CoV-2 in December 2019, Taiwan has gone through three local outbreaks. Unlike the first two outbreaks, the spatial and temporal origin of the third outbreak (April 20 to November 5, 2021) is still unclear. We assembled and analyzed a data set of more than 6,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 300 from Taiwan and 5812 related sequences downloaded from GISAID as of 2021/12/08. We found that the third outbreak in Taiwan was caused by a single virus lineage belonging to Alpha (B.1.1.7) strain. This lineage, T-III (the third outbreak in Taiwan), carries a distinct genetic fingerprint, consisting of spike M1237I (S-M1237I) and three silent mutations, C5812T, C15895T, and T27869C. The T-III is closest to the sequences derived from Turkey on February 8, 2021. The estimated age of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of T-III is March 23, 2021 (95% highest posterior density [HPD] February 24 - April 13, 2021), almost one month before the first three confirmed cases on April 20, 2021. The effective population size of the T-III showed approximately 20-fold increase after the onset of the outbreak and reached a plateau in early June 2021. Our results reconcile several unresolved observations, including the occurrence of two infection clusters at the same time without traceable connection and several airline pilots who were PCR negative but serum IgM-/IgG+ for SARS-CoV-2 in late April. Therefore, in contrast to the general notion that the third SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Taiwan was sparked by two imported cases from USA on April 20, 2021, which, in turn, was caused by the partial relaxation of entry quarantine measures in early April 2021, our comprehensive analyses demonstrated that the outbreak was most likely originated from Europe in February 2021.