Optimal spatial release strategies for confined gene drives and Wolbachia

Abstract

Gene drives are genetic elements that can rapidly spread through populations, offering potential solutions for controlling disease vectors and pests. In some scenarios, it is necessary to utilize drives that can be confined to only target populations. The success of these threshold-dependent gene drives, which require a minimum local frequency to establish, depends critically on the spatial strategy used for introduction. Here, we use a reaction-diffusion model to systematically identify optimal release patterns that maximize the per-capita efficiency for four distinct gene drive designs as well as use of Wolbachia bacteria, which spread similarly to frequency-dependent gene drives. We find that the most efficient release strategy is highly dynamic, transitioning from a broad "everywhere" release for short timeframes to a "multiple-ring" pattern for intermediate times, and finally to a focused "center" release for longer timeframes. These timeframes depend on the specific type of drive, with more powerful variants transitioning more quickly to center releases. Our results demonstrate that these optimized, variable release strategies can be substantially more effective than simple uniform releases. This study provides a quantitative framework for designing effective gene drive implementations, highlighting that a carefully planned spatial strategy is essential for maximizing impact, making optimal use of available resources.