Rapid adaptive evolution of microbial thermal performance curves

Microbial respiration is a key biotic driver of climate change. Warming boosts microbial population growth, which increases biomass and respiration. This feedback might be disrupted by adaptation in thermal performance curves (TPCs) -whose shape describes how temperature drives growth. In this study, we uncover substantial genetic variation (G) in microbial intrinsic population growth rates (r), demonstrate a causal link between G variation in r and G variation in TPC shape, and show how this variation constrains r-TPC shape evolution along specific evolutionary paths across temperatures. We also uncover Gene-by-Environment (G x E) variation in r, which results in specific signatures in TPC shape and predictable temperature-dependent rapid TPC evolution but also lower G, which could reduce future evolutionary potential. Overall, we show how temperature-dependent evolution in a linchpin of global ecosystem function--microbial TPC shape--is determined by a combination of heritable and non-heritable variation in intrinsic growth rates.