Risk evaluation of newly emerging flu viruses based on genomic sequences and AI

Abstract

The recent resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses in North America and Europe has heightened global concerns regarding potential influenza pandemics. Despite significant progress in the surveillance and prevention of emerging influenza viruses, effective tools for rapid and accurate risk assessment remain limited. Here, we present FluRisk, an innovative computational framework that integrates viral genomic data with artificial intelligence (AI) to enable rapid and comprehensive risk evaluation of emerging influenza strains. FluRisk incorporates a curated database of over 1,000 experimentally validated molecular markers linked to key viral phenotypes, including mammalian adaptation, mammalian virulence, mammalian transmission, human receptor-binding preference, and antiviral drug resistance. Leveraging these markers, we developed three state-of-the-art machine learning models to predict human adaptation, mammalian virulence, and human receptor-binding potential, all of which demonstrated superior performance compared to traditional approaches such as BLAST, prior models, and baseline classifiers. In addition, a reference-based method was implemented to provide preliminary estimates of human transmissibility and resistance to six commonly used antiviral drugs. To facilitate broad accessibility and practical application, we developed a user-friendly web server that integrates both the molecular marker atlas and predictive tools for influenza virus phenotyping (available at: http://www.computationalbiology.cn/FluRisk/#/). This computational platform offers a valuable resource for the timely risk assessment of emerging influenza viruses and supports global influenza surveillance efforts.