Structure-Based and Stability-Validated Prioritization of BACE1 Inhibitors Integrating Meta-Ensemble QSAR and Molecular Dynamics

Abstract

Alzheimers disease remains a major therapeutic challenge, and no {beta}-secretase (BACE1) inhibitor has achieved clinical approval. A key limitation of prior discovery efforts is reliance on single-parameter optimization, often resulting in candidates with limited translational potential. In this study, we developed a biology-informed computational framework integrating meta-ensemble QSAR modeling, molecular docking, Protein Language Model (ESM-1b)-guided residue interaction weighting, and ADMET profiling within a normalized multi-parameter ranking scheme. Model performance was validated using cross-validation, external validation, and Y-randomization (n = 100; p = 0.009), while applicability domain analysis based on Tanimoto similarity highlighted reduced reliability for extrapolative predictions. Sensitivity analysis showed high ranking stability under moderate perturbations (Spearman {rho} = 0.998 for {+/-}10%; 0.963 for {+/-}25%), with reduced agreement under randomized weighting ({rho} = 0.821), indicating that prioritization is robust but influenced by weight selection. Screening of 16,196 compounds identified 153 predicted actives (accuracy = 0.852; ROC-AUC = 0.920), which were refined to 111 candidates and seven prioritized leads. Molecular dynamics simulations (200 ns) indicated stable binding and persistent catalytic interactions, with Mol-2 showing favorable dynamic stability and ADMET characteristics. Overall, this study presents an interpretable and quantitatively evaluated framework for multi-parameter compound prioritization, supporting more reliable virtual screening in early-stage CNS drug discovery.