Pathogen Host Shifts from a Niche Evolution Perspective

Emerging infectious diseases constitute a major health threat and are often associated with zoonotic spillover processes. Pathogen host shifts may involve evolutionary adaptation to new host species, which is of central concern in relation to future pandemics. Evolutionary host shifts require certain conditions to be met, including physiological and ecological factors. A pathogen strain infecting a new host species to which it is not well adapted will generally experience reduced success, which depends on the effective similarity between the new host species and the original reservoir host species from the pathogen's perspective. The adaptation process involves intermediate strains, or phenotypes, that exist at the cost of reduced transmission and replication rates, and the evolutionary outcome depends on factors associated with host species physiology and population interactions. The interplay between host similarity and interaction, and pathogen adaptation trade-offs, is therefore important in steering pathogen evolution and possible evolutionary host-shift outcomes. Here we apply niche-evolution theory to host-pathogen systems to investigate the combined effect of host species similarity and intra- and interspecific interactions on evolutionary host shifts. We identify the conditions under which evolutionary host shifts occur and show, for a two-host-species system, that evolutionary outcomes fall into four distinct categories.