Accurate inference in parametric models reshapes neuroscientific interpretation and improves data-driven discovery

A central goal of systems neuroscience is to understand the relationships amongst constituent units in neural populations and their modulation by external factors using high-dimensional and stochastic neural recordings. Statistical models, particularly parametric models, play an instrumental role in accomplishing this goal, because their fitted parameters can provide insight into the underlying biological processes that generated the data. However, extracting conclusions from a parametric model requires that it is fit using an inference procedure capable of selecting the correct parameters and properly estimating their values. Traditional approaches to parameter inference have been shown to suffer from failures in both selection and estimation. Recent development of algorithms that ameliorate these deficiencies raises the question of whether past work relying on such inference procedures have produced inaccurate systems neuroscience models, thereby impairing their interpretation. Here, we used the Union of Intersections, a statistical inference framework capable of state-of-the-art selection and estimation performance, to fit functional coupling, encoding, and decoding models across a battery of neural datasets. We found that, compared to baseline procedures, UoI inferred models with increased sparsity, improved stability, and qualitatively different parameter distributions, while maintaining predictive performance across recording modality, brain region, and task. Specifically, we obtained highly sparse functional coupling networks with substantially different community structure, more parsimonious encoding models, and decoding models that rely on fewer single-units. Together, these results demonstrate that accurate parameter inference reshapes interpretation in diverse neuroscience contexts. The ubiquity of model-based data-driven discovery in biology suggests that analogous results would be seen in other fields.