Driven to Extinction: On the Probability of Evolutionary Rescue from Sex-Ratio Meiotic Drive

Abstract

Many evolutionary processes result in sufficiently low mean fitness that they pose a risk of species extinction. Sex-ratio meiotic drive was recognized by W.D. Hamilton (1967) to pose such a risk, because as the driving sex chromosome becomes common, the opposite sex becomes rare. We expand on Hamiltons classic model by allowing for the escape from extinction due to evolution of suppressors of X and Y drivers. We explore differences in the two systems in their probability of escape from extinction. Several novel conclusions are evident, including a) that extinction time scales approximately with the log of population size so that even large populations may go extinct quickly, b) extinction risk is driven by the relationship between female fecundity and drive strength, c) anisogamy and the fact that X and Y drive result in sex ratios skewed in opposite directions, mean systems with Y drive are much more likely to go extinct than those with X drive, and d) suppressors are most likely to become established when the strength of drive is intermediate, since weak drive leads to weak selection for suppression and strong drive leads to rapid extinction.