New Genotype Emergence of DENV are Constrained by the Double Host Selection, Reducing the Probability of Alternative Serotype Emergence

Abstract

Since their discovery and sequencing 40 years ago, the DENV genotypes have shown an extreme coherence regarding the serotype class they code for. Considering the RNA virus mutation rate, we used Timed Markov Model to explore the transmission possibilities of mutated viruses and the statistical eventualities of new serotype emergence. We find that around 1 000 years are required for a new serotype to emerge, in line with phylogenetic analysis of the Dengue serotypes. Our work provides a mechanistic explanation of the strictness and low probability of a new Dengue virus serotype occurrence.\n\nAuthor summaryRecent Dengue virus global spread has drawn the attention of the Public Health Policy makers in developing countries and developed countries as well. The infection gravity and the hemorrhagic dengue syndromes have been related with the absence or presence of previous DENV immunity. Therefore, the emergence of a new DENV serotype and its spread constitute a matter of concern. Here, we constructed a mathematical model to determine the probability of such event, as well as de-entangle the mechanistic reasons behind the low serotype emergence factor of the DENV.