Microbiome time series data reveal predictable patterns of change

BackgroundThe gut microbiome is crucial for human health and disease. Longitudinal studies are gaining importance in understanding its dynamics over time, compared to cross-sectional approaches. Investigating the temporal dynamics of the microbiome, including individual bacterial species and clusters, is essential for comprehending its functionality and impact on health. This knowledge has implications for targeted therapeutic strategies, such as personalized diets and probiotic therapy. ResultsHere, by adopting a rigorous statistical approach, we aim to shed light on the temporal changes in the gut microbiome and unravel its intricate behavior over time. We leveraged four long and dense time series of the gut microbiome in generally healthy individuals examining how its composition evolves as a community and how individual bacterial species behave over time. We also explore whether specific clusters of bacteria exhibit similar fluctuations, which could provide insights into potential functional relationships and interactions within the microbiome Our study reveals that despite its high volatility, the human gut microbiome is stable in time and can be predicted based solely on its previous states. We characterize the unique temporal behavior of individual bacterial species and identify distinct longitudinal regimes in which bacteria exhibit specific patterns of behavior. Finally, through cluster analysis, we identify groups of bacteria that exhibit coordinated fluctuations over time. ConclusionsOur findings contribute to our understanding of the dynamic nature of the gut microbiome and its potential implications for human health. The provided guidelines support scientists studying gut microbiome complex dynamics, promoting further research and advancements in microbiome analysis.