Benchmarking AI Protein Structure Predictors Reveals a Persistent Bias in Multi-State Proteins

Abstract

Protein structure predictors achieve high single-state accuracy, but it remains unclear whether they can recover functionally relevant conformational ensembles or account for the presence of ligands and/or binding partners. Here, we benchmark AlphaFold3, Boltz-2, Chai-1, and BioEmu on four canonical multi-state proteins (Pf-MATE, LAO, SecA, and {beta}2AR), quantifying state bias and sampling breadth against experimental reference structures. Models frequently default to a dominant state represented in the PDB; small-molecule ligands have weak or inconsistent effects, while large protein partners drive clear conformational switching between states. Multiple sequence alignment (MSA)-based approaches (AF-Cluster and random subsampling) recapitulate similar biases, indicating that this behavior is not unique to newer architectures. These results underscore current limitations for multi-state protein structure prediction and structure-guided ligand discovery. TOC Graphic O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=111 SRC="FIGDIR/small/737860v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (12K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@278cc1org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@8a0b66org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@f28a21org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@14ab675_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG