Global Geographic and Temporal Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Haplotypes Normalized by COVID-19 Cases during the Pandemic

Since the identification of SARS-CoV-2, a large number of genomes have been sequenced with unprecedented speed around the world. This marks a unique opportunity to analyze virus spreading and evolution in a worldwide context. Currently, there is not a useful haplotype description to help to track important and globally scattered mutations. Also, differences in the number of sequenced genomes between countries and/or months make it difficult to identify the emergence of haplotypes in regions where few genomes are sequenced but a large number of cases are reported. We propose an approach based on the normalization by COVID-19 cases of relative frequencies of mutations using all the available data to identify major haplotypes. Furthermore, we can use a similar normalization approach to tracking the temporal and geographic distribution of haplotypes in the world. Using 171 461 genomes, we identify five major haplotypes (OTUs) based on nine high-frequency mutations. OTU_3 characterized by mutations R203K and G204R is currently the most frequent haplotype circulating in four of the six continents analyzed. On the other hand, during almost all months analyzed, OTU_5 characterized by the mutation T85I in nsp2 is the most frequent in North America. Recently (since September), OTU_2 has been established as the most frequent in Europe. OTU_1, the ancestor haplotype is near to extinction showed by its low number of isolations since May. Also, we analyzed whether age, gender, or patient status is more related to a specific OTU. We did not find OTUs preference for any age group, gender, or patient status. Finally, we discuss structural and functional hypotheses in the most frequently identified mutations, none of those mutations show a clear effect on the transmissibility or pathogenicity.