Identifying the environmental drivers of corridors and predicting connectivity between seasonal ranges in multiple populations of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) as tools for conserving migration

Seasonal migrations are central ecological processes connecting populations, species and ecosystems in time and space. Land migrations, such as those of ungulates, are particularly threatened by habitat transformations and fragmentation, climate change and other environmental changes caused by anthropogenic activities. Mountain ungulate migrations are neglected because they are relatively short, although traversing highly heterogeneous altitudinal gradients particularly exposed to anthropogenic threats. Detecting migration routes of these species and understanding their drivers is therefore of primary importance to predict connectivity and preserve ecosystem functions and services. The populations of Alpine ibex Capra ibex, an iconic species endemic to the Alps, have all been reintroduced from the last remnant source population. Because of their biology and conservation history, Alpine ibex populations are mostly disconnected. Hence, despite a general increase in abundance and overall distribution range, their conservation is strictly linked to the interplay between external threats and related behavioral responses, including space use and migration. By using 337 migratory tracks from 425 GPS-collared individuals from 15 Alpine ibex populations distributed across their entire range, we (i) identified the environmental drivers of movement corridors in both spring and autumn and (ii) compared the abilities of three modeling approaches to predict migratory movements between seasonal ranges of the 15 populations. Trade-offs between energy expenditure, food, and cover seemed to be the major driver of migration routes: steep south-facing snow-free slopes were selected while high elevation changes were avoided. This revealed the importance of favorable resources and an attempt to limit energy expenditures and perceived predation risk. Based on these findings, we provided efficient connectivity models to inform conservation of Alpine ibex and its habitats, and a framework for future research investigating connectivity in migratory species.