Cancer genomic profiling predicts pathogenicity of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants
Olga KondrashovaiD, Rebecca L. JohnstoniD, Michael T. ParsonsiD, Aimee L. DavidsoniD, Daffodil M. CansoniD, Khoa Anh TraniD, MELISSA CLINEiD, Nicola WaddelliD, Smruthy SivakumariD, Ethan S. SokoliD, Dexter X. JiniD, Dean C. PavlickiD, Brennan James DeckeriD, Garrett Michael FramptoniD, Amanda B. SpurdleiD
Abstract
Accurate classification of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants is essential for cancer risk assessment and therapy selection, yet over one-third remain variants of uncertain significance (VUS). Here, using 120,660 real-world cancer genomic profiles with BRCA1 or BRCA2 variants from a >800,000-sample cohort, we develop machine learning models that predict pathogenicity using clinical and tumor-derived features, including a pan-cancer homologous recombination deficiency signature, co-mutated genes, zygosity, and cancer type. Trained on classified variants from ClinVar, our models achieved near-perfect performance, with validation ROC-AUC of 1.000 for BRCA1 and 0.989 for BRCA2 variants with [≥]5 observations, translating to strong benign or pathogenic evidence for VCEP classification. Applying these models to 1,073 BRCA1 and 1,639 BRCA2 VUS, we strengthened or enabled classification of 39.48% BRCA1 and 50.52% BRCA2 assessable variants. This approach transforms underutilized tumor profiling data into evidence that can be directly integrated into variant classification, providing a scalable framework for other tumor profiling datasets and cancer genes associated with defined tumor genomic features.
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