Selecting sites for strategic surveillance of zoonotic pathogens: a case study in Panama

Surveillance and monitoring of zoonotic pathogens is key to identifying and mitigating emerging public health threats. Surveillance is often designed to be taxonomically targeted or systematically dispersed across geography, however, those approaches may not represent the breadth of environments inhabited by a host, vector, or pathogen, leaving significant gaps in our understanding of pathogen dynamics in their natural reservoirs and environments. As a case study on the design of pathogen surveillance programs, we assess how well 20 years of small mammal surveys in Panama have sampled available environments and propose a multistep approach to selecting survey localities in the future. We use >8,000 georeferenced mammal specimen records, collected as part of a long-term hantavirus surveillance program, to test the completeness of country-wide environmental sampling. Despite 20 years of surveillance, our analyses identified a few key environmental sampling gaps. To refine surveillance strategies, we selected a series of core historically sampled localities, supplemented with additional environmentally distinct sites to more completely represent Panamas environments. Based on lessons learned through decades of surveillance, we propose a series of recommendations to improve strategic sampling for zoonotic pathogen surveillance.