Rescue Ebola Patients in silico

Abstract

Ebola, one of the most pathogenic and lethal viruses, repeatedly leads to severe outbreaks with large numbers of casualties. By integration of data of fatal, non-fatal and asymptomatic cases, we developed a mathematical model of the immune response to Ebola infections and found that TNF- can explain subsequent cytokine responses and allows to quantitatively stratify patients into survivors and fatal cases. The model further suggests that antibodies provide the key resolving mechanism in survivors while IFN-{gamma} is the key defense mechanism in fatal cases. Exogenous IFN-{gamma} and inhibition of excessive inflammation have the potential to rescue fatal Ebola infections in silico. In view of the high mortality of this disease, limited real life studies, and the unforeseeable next outbreak, our in silico analysis is meant as a guide for future research by the determination of the most efficient strategies for Ebola treatment.