Temperature-dependent predation predicts a more reptilian future

Abstract

Vertebrate diversity increases toward the tropics, but the extent to which this pattern varies with thermoregulatory strategy is unknown. A strong divergence, if confirmed, would imply a global restructuring of vertebrate communities with temperature. Here we present evidence for a novel latitudinal and thermal gradient of comparative vertebrate diversity. Synthesizing over 34,000 terrestrial species distributions, we observe a two-orders-of-magnitude shift in comparative richness with temperature, from endothermic dominance in temperate habitats and high elevations, toward parity with ectotherms in the lowland tropics. Next, we provide experimental support for an underlying thermal gradient of predation. Using machine vision tracking in over 4,500 endotherm-ectotherm predation trials, we show that thermally-mediated differences in performance favor endotherm predators in colder conditions and yield theoretically predicted outcomes, including strike count, distance traveled, and time to capture ectotherm prey. Finally, we integrate theory and data to forecast future patterns of diversity, revealing that as the world gets warmer, it will become increasingly reptilian.