Complex patterns of multimorbidity associated with severe COVID-19 and Long COVID

Abstract

Early evidence that patients with (multiple) pre-existing diseases are at highest risk for severe COVID-19 has been instrumental in the pandemic to allocate critical care resources and later vaccination schemes. However, systematic studies exploring the breadth of medical diagnoses, including common, but non-fatal diseases are scarce, but may help to understand severe COVID-19 among patients at supposedly low risk. Here, we systematically harmonized >12 million primary care and hospitalisation health records from [~]500,000 UK Biobank participants into 1448 collated disease terms to systematically identify diseases predisposing to severe COVID-19 (requiring hospitalisation or death) and its post-acute sequalae, Long COVID. We identified a total of 679 diseases associated with an increased risk for severe COVID-19 (n=672) and/or Long COVID (n=72) that spanned almost all clinical specialties and were strongly enriched in clusters of cardio-respiratory and endocrine-renal diseases. For 57 diseases, we established consistent evidence to predispose to severe COVID-19 based on survival and genetic susceptibility analyses. This included a possible role of symptoms of malaise and fatigue as a so far largely overlooked risk factor for severe COVID-19. We finally observed partially opposing risk estimates at known risk loci for severe COVID-19 for etiologically related diseases, such as post-inflammatory pulmonary fibrosis (e.g., MUC5B, NPNT, and PSMD3) or rheumatoid arthritis (e.g., TYK2), possibly indicating a segregation of disease mechanisms. Our results provide a unique reference that demonstrates how 1) complex co-occurrence of multiple - including non-fatal - conditions predispose to increased COVID-19 severity and 2) how incorporating the whole breadth of medical diagnosis can guide the interpretation of genetic risk loci.