Temperature alone is not enough: food-web context determines evolutionary responses to warming

Abstract

Global warming is reshaping food webs globally. Rapid evolution has been proposed as a buffer against climate change, but how simultaneous shifts in biotic and abiotic environments may influence evolution is unknown. Using experimental evolution and mathematical modeling in microbial food webs of prey algae and ciliate predators, we tested 1) how temperature affects prey evolution and 2) how the food-web context--i.e., predator identity, abundance, and competition among predators-- mediates prey evolutionary dynamics. We found that temperature alone does not drive prey evolution unless predators are present, and food-web context determines ensuing evolutionary dynamics. These seemingly complex evolutionary responses are predictable from the joint effects of temperature-dependent, predator-specific predation rates, and the emergence of temperature-dependent prey plasticity. We reveal that evolutionary outcomes under warming are shaped by the broader food web context of species, suggesting that the same species may exhibit different eco-evolutionary responses in different food webs under novel climates. SIGNIFICANCEPredicting how species evolve under climate change is critical for understanding future changes in food webs. Evolutionary responses have long been known to be driven by environmental change--like temperature--but whether and how ecological interactions influence this process is unknown. Using experimental evolution and mathematical modeling, we show that temperature alone does not drive prey evolution. Instead, the broader food webs context--predator identity, abundance, and competition--mediates how species evolve under warming. Additionally, we demonstrate that prey evolution depends on temperature-dependent predator-specific predation rates and prey plasticity. Our findings highlight that the same species may evolve differently within different food webs, urging the need to integrate ecological interactions when forecasting evolutionary responses to climate change.