Exact Probability Distribution for the ROC Area Under Curve

Abstract

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) is a de facto standard for determining the accuracy of in vitro diagnostic (IVD) medical devices, and thus exactness in its probability distribution is crucial toward accurate statistical inference. We show the exact probability distribution of the ROC AUC-value, hence exact critical values and p-values are readily obtained. Because the exact calculations are computationally intense, we demonstrate a method of geometric interpolation which is exact in a special case but generally an approximation, vastly increasing computational speeds. The method is illustrated through open access data, demonstrating superiority of 26 composite biomarkers relative to a predicate device. Especially under correction for testing of multiple hypotheses, traditional asymptotic approximations are encumbered by considerable imprecision, adversely affecting IVD device development. The ability to obtain exact p-values will allow more efficient IVD device development.