Reverse-engineering human olfactory perception from chemical features of odor molecules

Despite 25 years of progress in understanding the molecular mechanisms of olfaction, it is still not possible to predict whether a given molecule will have a perceived odor, or what olfactory percept it will produce. To address this stimulus-percept problem for olfaction, we organized the crowd-sourced DREAM Olfaction Prediction Challenge. Working from a large olfactory psychophysical dataset, teams developed machine learning algorithms to predict sensory attributes of molecules based on their chemoinformatic features. The resulting models predicted odor intensity and pleasantness with high accuracy, and also successfully predicted eight semantic descriptors (\"garlic\", \"fish\", \"sweet\", \"fruit\", \"burnt\", \"spices\", \"flower\", \"sour\"). Regularized linear models performed nearly as well as random-forest-based approaches, with a predictive accuracy that closely approaches a key theoretical limit. The models presented here make it possible to predict the perceptual qualities of virtually any molecule with an impressive degree of accuracy to reverse-engineer the smell of a molecule.\n\nOne Sentence SummaryResults of a crowdsourcing competition show that it is possible to accurately predict and reverse-engineer the smell of a molecule.